The manga is not following the novel but.. theory??
In one of the flash back chapters when claude and fake claude still had a good sibling relationship, fake claude sees a shadow like thingy..
So my theory is that it was the late emperor of the kingdom. We know lucas rejected a prince as his diciple since he had no talent in magic so it might be that the prince turned into an asshole and is actually currently possessing fakeclaude (since his magic is inferior to claude's , it might be that the late emperor who is alive due to black magic wanted to use fake claude)
So basically fake claude is already dead and it's the late emperor who is currently in his body..
This is just a theory soooo... :)

Please someone who read the novel spoil me, I cant Take the anxiety.